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Standout Growth for Air Freight Volume in Middle East in May

JUL. 2--Growth in global air cargo markets remained relatively flat in May, broadly following the trend of the last 18 months, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Global air freight metric tons kilometers inched up 0.8 percent compared with the same month last year, following a 1.3 percent year-over-year gain in April. However, capacity rose by 2.1 percent, causing load factors to fall to 44.9 percent, the lowest level since the post-crisis recovery.

In May, volume dropped by 1.2 percent in North America, 0.5 percent in the Asia-Pacific region and 0.1 percent in Latin America, while volume increased by 9.7 percent in the Middle East, 1.0 percent in Europe and 0.2 percent in Africa. All regions recorded a decline in freight load factors in May compared with May 2012. 

“It is getting harder to find optimistic signs for air cargo growth,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO, in a written statement. “The Middle East remains a bright spot, and the rate of decline in the eurozone is easing. But this is offset by the weakening of expansion in Asia-Pacific.”

Year-to-date, international freight metric ton kilometers dropped 0.5 percent year-over-year, while capacity rose 0.6 percent, resulting in a 45.2 percent load factor. May results were largely unchanged compared with April, for both year-over-year and month-to-month comparisons, according to IATA. Nevertheless, seasonally adjusted volumes were still above the October 2012 low point, suggesting there has been some improvement in 2013 compared with 2012.

The stall in cargo markets seems to be the result of a recent softening in growth in developing economies, including China, IATA said. The association noted that gross domestic product growth in China failed to meet expectations in the first quarter, and business confidence has now slipped to levels that indicate contraction in manufacturing activity. As a result, Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 2.5 percent decline in freight metric ton kilometers from January to May.

However, gains in Asia-Africa trade have supported the strong performance of Middle Eastern airlines over the past several years, and further expansion into markets like Japan, where export volume has started to improve over recent months, will only help support continued growth for these carriers, IATA added.

Furthermore, IATA said that business confidence is also flat globally and even declining in some developing economies, meaning an upturn in the near future is unlikely.

“It is now clear that the positive global upswing in air cargo at the end of 2012 was an illusion,” Tyler concluded. “Air cargo, along with many parts of the world economy, appears to be in suspended animation at the moment.”


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